Research

Summary: ·         Parliament proposes loosening fiscal deficit cap from 3% to 5% of GDP ·         IDR offshore rates dropped after USD ended 10-day r

Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) reported a 2019 net profit of IDR4.9tn (+17.8% y-y), largely in-line with our estimate. Meanwhile, its 2019 revenue came in at IDR76.6tn (+4.4% y-y). We make some adjustments to our model, as we realign our forecasts wit

Indofood CBP (ICBP) booked a 2019 net profit of IDR5.0tn (+10.1% y-y), in line with our estimate. 2019 revenue came in at IDR42.3tn (+10.1% y-y). While we remain cautious due to the tight competitive landscape in the dairy, snack, and beverage busine

We expect significant downside risks to our sales volume forecasts, given the weak economy amidst COVID-19 outbreak – we now expect INTP’s sales volume to decline by 10% y-y with flattish ASPs this year, before a potential volume growth r

We believe that JCI currently offers a very appealing risk-return profile, with the index trading at 11.3x 2020F P/E, or at –3.6 SD from its post-GFC mean. Although we expect more negative news related to Covid-19 in the future, we believe furt

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) reported 4Q19 net profit of IDR722.1bn, (+237.8% q-q and +45.6% y-y). This brought 12M19 net profit to IDR1.76tn, -18.6% y-y, above our expectation (115% of our full-year forecast) and consensus (114%), largely due to t

We expect a significant impact to Indonesia’s trade, tourism FX earnings and GDP growth from the global outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Investment, not consumption, could be most affected as the halt of imports from China might affect l

What’s new: 1) January 2020 4W industry data showed a monthly wholesale volume of c.79.9k units (-2.4% y-y, -7.6% m-m), excluding LCGC. The industry LCGC volume was up by 0.6% y-y but down by 10.2% m-m in January 2020. 2)  Astra&rsq

BBTN results came in below our expectations and the consensus BBTN reported a 4Q19 net loss of IDR592bn, -203.5% YoY. This brought FY19 net profit to IDR209bn, -92.6% YoY, below our expectation (88.3% of our full-year forecast) and the consensus (

HMSP’s sales volumes: Meeting expectations Based on Philip Morris International’s (PM) quarterly release, Indonesia’s cigarette industry sales volume in 4Q19 accelerated to 83.4bn sticks (+5.6% q-q/+1.6% y-y), translating to full

JSMR’s share price has corrected by 16% since October 2019, bringing its valuation to 0.7SD below its ten-year historical mean, which we think is unjustified given: 1) We believe JSMR’s EBITDA margin would continue to expand in 2020-21E s

This is the third and last part of three in our series of 2020 Macroeconomic Outlook reports that focus on the: 1) trade balance & IDR, 2) interest rates & inflation, and 3) GDP growth & Omnibus Law. For 2020, we forecast Indonesia’

This is the second part of three in our series of 2020 Macroeconomic Outlook reports that will focus on the: 1) trade balance & IDR, 2) interest rates & inflation, and 3) GDP growth & Omnibus Law. In 2020, we think the yield of Indonesian

Steady growth in nickel production and sales, as expected. ANTM produced 6.6k tonnes of Ferronickel (FeNi) in 4Q19 (+18.9% y-y, +10.4% q-q), bringing it to a total of 25.7k tonnes of FeNi in 12M19 (+3.4% y-y). ANTM also recorded FeNi sales of 6.6k to

The JCI has corrected by 3.0% YTD, partly driven by investors’ jitters related to the outbreak of novel coronavirus (nCoV) infection in China. We believe that the correction provides a good opportunity to pick up quality Indonesian stocks at a

Summary: ·         Positive correlation between stronger IDR and exports ·         Bahana expects BI to keep rates unchanged this week Currency app

§  Lower FFB and CPO in November: Due to continually decreasing matured area growth (2019: 266k ha; 2018: 273k ha) and a longer-than-expected dry season, AALI’s 11M19 production only reached 4.6mn tons (88% of our 2019 forecast), down

What’s new: 1) December 2019 4W industry data showed a monthly wholesale volume of 86.6k units (-1.4% y-y, -4.6% m-m), bringing the 12M19 total volume to 1.03k units (-10.8% y-y), excluding LCGC. The industry LCGC volume was up by 3.3% y-y

This is the first part of three in our series of 2020 Macroeconomic Outlook reports that will focus on the: 1) trade balance & IDR, 2) GDP growth & Omnibus Law, and 3) interest rates & inflation. In 2020, on the external balance front, we

Based on our survey this month, we note the following: 1) HMSP’s end-December ex-factory price adjustments resulted in 0.4-9.7% m-m retail price hikes; 2) we expect to see aggressive price hikes from GGRM in the coming months, after muted price

In 2020, we expect Ramayana Lestari (RALS) to see negative SSSG largely as a result of the less-affluent segment’s softer purchasing power. Given a lack of positive catalysts for the next 12 months, we take a cautious stance and downgrade our r

We are turning more positive on the Indonesia cement sector and expect a solid earnings growth trajectory from 2020 on: 1) improving demand-supply dynamics along with higher utilization rates; 2) lower cost pressure, especially production costs given

Summary: October 2019 4W industry data showed a monthly wholesale volume of c.96k units (-12.4% y-y, -3.2% m-m), bringing the 10M19 total volume to c.849k units (-11.7% y-y), excluding LCGC. The industry LCGC volume was up by 10.2% m-m, but down 3.4%

Key Summary: Trade balance posts USD161mn surplus in October Exports beat consensus due to manufacturing rebound   Trade surplus is a positive start for 4Q external balance. Indonesia posted a USD161mn trade surplus in October, w

The BI Board of Governors agreed on 21 November 2019 to hold the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 5.0%, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 4.25% and the Lending Facility rate at 5.75%. Seeking to ensure adequate liquidity in the banking indu

Key Summary: BI holds rate but cuts reserve-requirement ratio Bahana expects heightened inflationary pressures in 2020   Bank Indonesia holds rate but undertakes efforts to anticipate potential weakness in fiscal engine. The cent

Key Summary: Budget deficit at 1.80% as of October Bahana expects bond auction to go ahead in December   We attended the Finance Ministry’s briefing to discuss the 2020 State Budget realization. The fiscal shortfall, or the

GGRM’s end-September and HMSP’s early November price hikes are baked in at the retail level Based on our November retail price survey, the ex-factory price hikes carried out by GGRM for some products at end-September are finally being

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has released some points of the draft revision of the tax law. The salient points from the article in Kontan are: 1) a gradual reduction in the corporate income tax (CIT) rate to 20% in 2022, from 25% currently, starting

Domestic cement sales in August came in lower than expected at -3.2% y-y/ flat m-m and brought the 8M19 volume down by 2% y-y, dragged by the Java region, especially eastern Java. We also observed notable expansion in Conch Cement’s market shar